Latest Upper Air Sounding
Weather Forecast Office in Upton, NY (WFO OKX)
NOTE!  Normal observations are at 0Z or 12Z.

Station: KOKX Date: 1200Z 3 SEP 10  
1000-500 Mb Thickness (Ft) 18823.92  
Freezing Level (Ft) 15040  
Wet Bulb Zero (Ft) 9623 LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
Precipitable Water (Inches) 1.4  
Sfc-500 Mean Rel Humidity (%) 56  
700-500 Lapse Rate (C/km) 6.34  
ThetaE Index (C/km) 26.01  
Lifted Index (C) -1.98 MODERATELY UNSTABLE
Showalter Index (C) 7.75 NO THUNDERSTORMS
Total Totals Index 36.2 NO CONVECTION LIKELY
K Index -2.5 NO THUNDERSTORMS
Sweat Index 74.8 NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
Energy Index 1.43 NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED
CAPE (B+) (J/Kg) 206.56  
NCAPE (B+) (J/Kg) 0.05  
Max Up Vert Vel (m/s) 20.33  
CIN (B-) (J/Kg) 148.96  
CAP Strength (C) 3.79 MODERATE CAP
Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (Ft) 2575.56  
Lev Free Conv (LFC) (Ft) 11511.96  
Equalibrium Lev (EL) (Ft) 24796.04  
Storm Direction   194.6 at 10.5 knts
Shear (0-3Km) (10-3/s) 3.7  
Storm Rel Helicity (0-3Km) 45.7 NONE TO VERY WEAK HELICAL FLOW
Storm Rel Vorticity (0-3Km) 2.4  
Energy-Hel Index 0.08 SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES UNLIKELY
BULK Richardson 31.99 INSUFFICIENT SHEAR AND/OR CAPE VALUES
BULK Shear (m/s) 6.46  

Latest RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) Forecast

KOKX 12Z SEP 3, 2010 0 Hr 3 Hr 6 Hr 9 Hr 12 Hr
Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (m agl) 168 270 241 141 149
Lev Free Conv (LFC) (m agl) 3630 2235 1802 1254 1174
0-3km CAPE(J/kg) NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) (J/kg) 562 835 733 552 537
Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) (J/kg) 48 340 127 94 120
Mixed Layer CIN (MLCINH) (J/kg) -208 P -40 S -76 O -62 O -43 S
0-3km Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) 0.08 0.15 0.09 0.13 0.12
0-1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) 0.06 P 0.28 P 0.16 P 0.07 P 0.04 P
0-3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) 0.10 0.22 0.29 0.23 0.19
0-1km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) 45 96 62 32 16
0-3km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) 84 110 107 112 84
0-1km Shear (kt) 9 20 9 11 14
0-3km Shear (kt) 13 13 18 16 11
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) 0.02 0.24 0.05 0.02 0.01
Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) 0 0 1 0 0
Craven Sig Severe 0.67 7.37 2.71 1.37 1.00
Hail Size (In) 0 0 0 0 0
Conv Gust (Kts) 45 46 45 36 34
Best LI (C) -0.94 -0.27 -1.42 -2.45 -2.63
WZH (1000 Ft AGL) 13.57 15.57 15.62 14.90


Support For Supercells: S-strong, O-OK, M-Marginal, P-Poor
VGP - Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
STP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
SCP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of supercells and tornadic storms
Craven Sig Severe - Values greater than 20 suggest an increasing possibility of sig severe storms

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 ESPERANZA WEATHER CENTER
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