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Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Early Morning Forecast

Updated: 27 Feb 2018 at 05:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
27 Feb 2018 52   53 36   39 54   56 41   43 49   56 39   42 43   46 36   37
26 Feb 2018 55 49 53 33 40.2 36 55   54 35   40 53   56 40   45 49   53 39   43
25 Feb 2018 43 41.8 45 37 38.9 41 57 49 53 34 40.2 36 51   54 36   39 53   55 37   43
24 Feb 2018 53 56.2 57 39 37.5 41 46 41.8 47 38 38.9 42 53 49 54 34 40.2 38 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 42 38.1 44 40 35.6 41 55 56.2 58 39 37.5 38 45 41.8 48 38 38.9 43 54 49 56 34 40.2 37
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 47 32 42 35 41 38.1 42 40 35.6 38 51 56.2 57 41 37.5 41 51 41.8 46 41 38.9 43
21 Feb 2018 65 76 69 39 53.5 45 42 43.1 47 33 42 37 42 38.1 44 39 35.6 40 53 56.2 52 41 37.5 41
20 Feb 2018 58 68.1 62 50 48.9 52 64 76 64 42 53.5 43 46 43.1 46 35 42 35 45 38.1 45 40 35.6 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 53 44 30.2 47 59 68.1 63 52 48.9 53 61 76 64 47 53.5 44 50 43.1 50 36 42 36
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 47 31 32.9 36 48 52.6 53 43 30.2 46 56 68.1 59 51 48.9 51 64 76 64 44 53.5 49
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 43 32 30.5 35 46 46.1 47 30 32.9 36 47 52.6 53 44 30.2 47 59 68.1 60 49 48.9 53
16 Feb 2018 53 56.9 55 28 48.7 30 39 38.3 42 31 30.5 33 42 46.1 49 33 32.9 38 48 52.6 53 43 30.2 47
15 Feb 2018 55 57.3 56 49 43.3 49 49 56.9 55 23 48.7 28 36 38.3 40 32 30.5 34 44 46.1 48 32 32.9 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 50 39 29 42 58 57.3 57 46 43.3 48 55 56.9 55 26 48.7 26 35 38.3 39 29 30.5 34
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 6 5 0 5 5 3 1 1 4 3 0 0 3 3 0
% Succ 23.1   46.2 38.5   0.0 41.7   41.7 25.0   8.3 9.1   36.4 27.3   0.0     30.0 30.0   0.0
Ave Error 4.2   3.2 7.2   7.4 4.4   3.6 6.8   6.4 5.5   4.4 6.2   7.4 6.2   5.2 4.7   5.3
Net Error -2.2   0.5 -1.4   1.4 -1.6   0.4 -2.6   -0.4 -2.9   0.3 -1.7   -0.2 -0.6   0.4 -0.1   2.6
Std Dev 3.2   2.3 6.3   5.4 3.9   3.2 4.9   4.9 4.7   4.0 4.6   5.6 4.6   4.1 3.5   3.6

Late Morning Forecast

Updated: 27 Feb 2018 at 09:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
27 Feb 2018 52   55 36   40 54   57 41   43 49   56 39   42 43   47 36   37
26 Feb 2018 51 49 52 33 32.3 36 55   54 35   39 53   56 40   45 49   53 39   43
25 Feb 2018 43 41.8 44 37 40.2 40 57 49 53 34 32.3 36 51   54 36   39 53   55 37   43
24 Feb 2018 54 56.2 58 39 38.9 41 46 41.8 47 38 40.2 42 53 49 54 34 32.3 38 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 41 38.1 42 40 37.5 39 55 56.2 57 39 38.9 37 45 41.8 48 38 40.2 43 54 49 55 34 32.3 37
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 45 32 35.6 35 41 38.1 44 40 37.5 39 51 56.2 58 41 38.9 41 51 41.8 46 41 40.2 43
21 Feb 2018 65 76 68 39 42 45 42 43.1 47 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 44 39 37.5 40 53 56.2 52 41 38.9 41
20 Feb 2018 58 68.1 62 50 53.5 53 64 76 65 42 42 44 46 43.1 47 35 35.6 35 45 38.1 45 40 37.5 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 54 44 48.9 46 59 68.1 63 52 53.5 53 61 76 64 47 42 44 50 43.1 50 36 35.6 36
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 46 31 30.2 36 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 46 56 68.1 59 51 53.5 51 64 76 64 44 42 49
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 42 32 32.9 36 46 46.1 47 30 30.2 36 47 52.6 53 44 48.9 47 59 68.1 60 49 53.5 53
16 Feb 2018 53 56.9 56 28 30.5 30 39 38.3 42 31 32.9 33 42 46.1 49 33 30.2 38 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 47
15 Feb 2018 55 57.3 55 49 48.7 49 49 56.9 54 23 30.5 28 36 38.3 40 32 32.9 34 44 46.1 48 32 30.2 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 48 39 43.3 41 58 57.3 56 46 48.7 48 55 56.9 54 26 30.5 27 35 38.3 39 29 32.9 34
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 5 5 6 5 4 6 8 1 3 4 4 0 3 5 5
% Succ 30.8   38.5 38.5   46.2 41.7   33.3 50.0   66.7 9.1   27.3 36.4   36.4     30.0 50.0   50.0
Ave Error 3.7   2.9 2.3   2.0 4.4   3.8 2.4   2.1 5.5   4.7 2.6   3.0 6.2   5.1 2.6   2.9
Net Error -2.5   -0.2 -1.7   1.0 -1.6   0.4 -1.7   0.7 -2.9   0.3 -0.2   1.4 -0.6   0.3 -0.3   2.4
Std Dev 3.2   2.2 1.6   1.7 3.9   3.1 1.9   1.7 4.7   3.9 1.9   2.0 4.6   4.0 1.9   2.5

Afternoon Forecast

Updated: 26 Feb 2018 at 13:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
26 Feb 2018 49   52 33   35 55   55 35   40 53   56 40   43 49   56 39   42
25 Feb 2018 43 41.8 43 37 40.2 40 57   53 34   36 51   55 36   40 53   56 37   43
24 Feb 2018 53 56.2 57 41 38.9 41 44 41.8 47 38 40.2 42 53   54 34   37 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 41 38.1 42 40 37.5 40 55 56.2 57 39 38.9 38 45 41.8 48 38 40.2 43 54   56 34   38
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 44 32 35.6 36 41 38.1 44 40 37.5 40 51 56.2 57 41 38.9 41 51 41.8 48 41 40.2 43
21 Feb 2018 63 76 76 39 42 46 42 43.1 48 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 44 39 37.5 41 53 56.2 56 41 38.9 40
20 Feb 2018 64 68.1 68 50 53.5 55 64 76 65 42 42 44 46 43.1 47 35 35.6 36 45 38.1 43 40 37.5 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 52 46 48.9 48 56 68.1 64 50 53.5 54 61 76 64 47 42 45 50 43.1 49 36 35.6 35
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 48 31 30.2 37 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 46 56 68.1 62 51 53.5 52 64 76 65 44 42 54
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 40 32 32.9 35 46 46.1 47 30 30.2 36 47 52.6 53 44 48.9 46 59 68.1 61 49 53.5 53
16 Feb 2018 57 56.9 59 28 30.5 28 39 38.3 42 31 32.9 33 42 46.1 49 33 30.2 37 48 52.6 54 43 48.9 48
15 Feb 2018 52 57.3 60 49 48.7 51 49 56.9 54 23 30.5 29 36 38.3 41 32 32.9 34 44 46.1 49 32 30.2 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 53 39 43.3 43 58 57.3 56 46 48.7 49 55 56.9 54 26 30.5 27 35 38.3 39 29 32.9 34
13 Feb 2018 33 34.9 37 30 29 33 47 50.9 51 40 43.3 42 55 57.3 56 45 48.7 47 52 56.9 58 25 30.5 22
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 8 4 5 5 5 4 9 1 3 3 4 0 4 4 6
% Succ 38.5   61.5 30.8   38.5 41.7   41.7 33.3   75.0 9.1   27.3 27.3   36.4     40.0 40.0   60.0
Ave Error 3.4   1.5 2.4   2.3 4.1   3.4 2.7   1.8 5.3   4.1 2.8   2.7 6.2   4.1 2.9   3.6
Net Error -2.5   1.4 -1.3   1.7 -3.0   0.2 -2.3   0.7 -3.5   0.0 -0.7   0.9 -1.6   0.5 -1.0   1.5
Std Dev 3.2   1.1 1.3   1.8 4.3   3.1 2.4   1.6 4.7   3.7 1.9   2.0 4.6   3.8 2.2   3.9

Evening Forecast

Updated: 26 Feb 2018 at 17:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
26 Feb 2018 33   35 51   54 32   40 52   56 41   44 49   53 40   40 45   46
25 Feb 2018 37 40.2 41 55 41.8 53 33   36 53   55 33   39 51   56 39   44 48   51
24 Feb 2018 41 38.9 40 44 56.2 46 38 40.2 42 50 41.8 55 35   36 51   54 36   40 53   54
23 Feb 2018 38 37.5 38 54 38.1 55 38 38.9 39 47 56.2 49 40 40.2 43 53 41.8 55 34   38 52   55
22 Feb 2018 33 35.6 36 43 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 51 38.1 57 41 38.9 37 51 56.2 47 41 40.2 41 51 41.8 56
21 Feb 2018 39 42 45 41 76 48 34 35.6 36 42 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 52 38.1 56 41 38.9 43 53 56.2 49
20 Feb 2018 48 53.5 54 65 68.1 65 41 42 43 43 76 47 32 35.6 37 42 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 54 38.1 56
19 Feb 2018 46 48.9 48 56 52.6 63 50 53.5 53 65 68.1 64 43 42 44 48 76 48 33 35.6 35 44 43.1 46
18 Feb 2018 31 30.2 36 49 46.1 53 44 48.9 46 59 52.6 62 54 53.5 53 63 68.1 65 46 42 48 49 76 51
17 Feb 2018 33 32.9 35 42 38.3 47 32 30.2 36 49 46.1 52 45 48.9 45 63 52.6 61 50 53.5 53 64 68.1 63
16 Feb 2018 28 30.5 28 37 56.9 42 31 32.9 34 46 38.3 48 33 30.2 36 49 46.1 55 45 48.9 48 59 52.6 61
15 Feb 2018 49 48.7 51 50 57.3 55 24 30.5 30 36 56.9 41 32 32.9 34 45 38.3 50 33 30.2 38 48 46.1 54
14 Feb 2018 41 43.3 42 57 50.9 57 51 48.7 49 52 57.3 53 23 30.5 28 36 56.9 40 31 32.9 36 44 38.3 52
13 Feb 2018 32 29 31 46 34.9 50 41 43.3 42 57 50.9 56 45 48.7 47 56 57.3 54 26 30.5 24 35 56.9 36
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 8 1 1 5 9 1 1 4 6 2 1 2 4 2 0
% Succ 30.8   61.5 7.7   7.7 41.7   75.0 8.3   8.3 36.4   54.5 18.2   9.1 20.0   40.0 20.0   0.0
Ave Error 2.2   1.8 10.3   10.3 2.6   1.5 9.7   10.2 2.6   2.4 9.7   11.0 2.9   3.3 9.6   12.3
Net Error -1.2   1.1 -1.6   1.3 -1.5   0.7 -2.4   0.1 -1.0   0.5 -1.5   -0.0 -0.4   1.6 -1.6   0.7
Std Dev 1.5   1.5 9.5   7.5 1.9   1.6 9.3   8.4 1.8   1.8 8.5   9.0 2.0   2.7 9.3   9.8

Night Forecast

Updated: 26 Feb 2018 at 21:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
26 Feb 2018 33   36 51   55 32   40 52   56 41   44 49   53 40   40 45   46
25 Feb 2018 37 40.2 41 55 49 53 33   36 53   55 33   39 51   55 39   44 48   51
24 Feb 2018 42 38.9 40 44 41.8 46 38 40.2 42 50 49 55 35   36 51   54 36   40 53   54
23 Feb 2018 40 37.5 37 54 56.2 56 38 38.9 39 47 41.8 49 40 40.2 43 53 49 56 34   38 52   55
22 Feb 2018 33 35.6 36 43 38.1 43 40 37.5 40 51 56.2 58 41 38.9 37 51 41.8 47 41 40.2 41 51 49 56
21 Feb 2018 41 42 46 42 43.1 49 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 43 40 37.5 40 52 56.2 56 41 38.9 43 53 41.8 49
20 Feb 2018 51 53.5 54 65 76 66 41 42 44 43 43.1 47 32 35.6 37 42 38.1 43 40 37.5 40 54 56.2 56
19 Feb 2018 46 48.9 49 56 68.1 62 50 53.5 53 65 76 65 43 42 44 48 43.1 48 33 35.6 35 44 38.1 46
18 Feb 2018 31 30.2 32 49 52.6 52 44 48.9 45 59 68.1 62 54 53.5 53 63 76 65 46 42 48 49 43.1 51
17 Feb 2018 33 32.9 32 42 46.1 46 32 30.2 36 49 52.6 53 45 48.9 45 63 68.1 61 50 53.5 53 64 76 63
16 Feb 2018 28 30.5 31 37 38.3 43 31 32.9 34 46 46.1 48 33 30.2 36 49 52.6 54 45 48.9 48 59 68.1 62
15 Feb 2018 52 48.7 52 50 56.9 56 24 30.5 30 36 38.3 41 32 32.9 34 45 46.1 50 33 30.2 38 48 52.6 54
14 Feb 2018 40 43.3 42 57 57.3 57 51 48.7 49 52 56.9 53 23 30.5 28 36 38.3 40 31 32.9 36 44 46.1 52
13 Feb 2018 32 29 29 46 50.9 49 41 43.3 42 57 57.3 56 45 48.7 47 56 56.9 53 26 30.5 24 35 38.3 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 11 3 6 4 9 4 4 4 6 2 3 2 4 1 3
% Succ 23.1   84.6 23.1   46.2 33.3   75.0 33.3   33.3 36.4   54.5 18.2   27.3 20.0   40.0 10.0   30.0
Ave Error 2.4   1.2 4.7   3.4 2.7   1.8 3.9   4.3 2.6   2.4 4.7   4.7 2.9   3.3 5.8   5.8
Net Error -0.4   0.8 -2.6   0.3 -1.6   0.7 -2.2   0.5 -1.0   0.5 -0.7   0.6 -0.4   1.6 -0.8   1.7
Std Dev 1.2   1.2 3.7   3.0 1.9   1.7 3.5   3.2 1.8   1.8 3.8   3.7 2.0   2.7 4.8   4.8
Weather Terms: Waterspout - In general, a tornado occurring over water. Specifically, it refers to a small, relatively weak rotating column of air over water beneath a towering cumulus or cumulonimbus cloud. They occasionally occur over Lake Michigan in late summer with unusually cold air aloft.