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Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

Early Morning Forecast

Updated: 24 Feb 2018 at 05:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
24 Feb 2018 53   57 39   41 46   47 38   42 53   54 34   38 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 42 38.1 44 40 35.6 41 55   58 39   38 45   48 38   43 54   56 34   37
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 47 32 42 35 41 38.1 42 40 35.6 38 51   57 41   41 51   46 41   43
21 Feb 2018 65 76 69 39 53.5 45 42 43.1 47 33 42 37 42 38.1 44 39 35.6 40 53   52 41   41
20 Feb 2018 58 68.1 62 50 48.9 52 64 76 64 42 53.5 43 46 43.1 46 35 42 35 45 38.1 45 40 35.6 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 53 44 30.2 47 59 68.1 63 52 48.9 53 61 76 64 47 53.5 44 50 43.1 50 36 42 36
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 47 31 32.9 36 48 52.6 53 43 30.2 46 56 68.1 59 51 48.9 51 64 76 64 44 53.5 49
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 43 32 30.5 35 46 46.1 47 30 32.9 36 47 52.6 53 44 30.2 47 59 68.1 60 49 48.9 53
16 Feb 2018 53 56.9 55 28 48.7 30 39 38.3 42 31 30.5 33 42 46.1 49 33 32.9 38 48 52.6 53 43 30.2 47
15 Feb 2018 55 57.3 56 49 43.3 49 49 56.9 55 23 48.7 28 36 38.3 40 32 30.5 34 44 46.1 48 32 32.9 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 50 39 29 42 58 57.3 57 46 43.3 48 55 56.9 55 26 48.7 26 35 38.3 39 29 30.5 34
13 Feb 2018 34 34.9 41 31 26.1 33 47 50.9 51 40 29 42 55 57.3 55 45 43.3 47 52 56.9 50 25 48.7 21
12 Feb 2018 43 40.9 49 22 40.2 26 34 34.9 40 28 26.1 32 46 50.9 50 43 29 42 56 57.3 57 44 43.3 45
11 Feb 2018 50 55.7 57 39 41.9 43 40 40.9 46 25 40.2 26 36 34.9 39 31 26.1 33 48 50.9 49 38 29 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 6 3 1 6 5 2 0 2 4 3 0 1 5 4 1
% Succ 23.1   46.2 23.1   7.7 50.0   41.7 16.7   0.0 18.2   36.4 27.3   0.0 10.0   50.0 40.0   10.0
Ave Error 4.1   3.7 8.4   8.3 3.7   3.5 8.4   8.5 5.1   4.0 7.1   8.6 5.4   4.6 6.9   8.6
Net Error -2.8   1.1 -2.1   0.9 -3.0   0.3 -2.3   0.1 -3.7   -0.8 0.5   1.5 -2.6   -1.2 -1.5   0.9
Std Dev 3.2   2.7 6.6   5.5 3.9   3.4 7.3   6.6 4.8   3.9 7.1   7.3 4.4   4.3 5.6   6.7

Late Morning Forecast

Updated: 24 Feb 2018 at 09:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
24 Feb 2018 54   58 39   41 46   47 38   42 53   54 34   38 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 41 38.1 42 40 37.5 39 55   57 39   37 45   48 38   43 54   55 34   37
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 45 32 35.6 35 41 38.1 44 40 37.5 39 51   58 41   41 51   46 41   43
21 Feb 2018 65 76 68 39 42 45 42 43.1 47 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 44 39 37.5 40 53   52 41   41
20 Feb 2018 58 68.1 62 50 53.5 53 64 76 65 42 42 44 46 43.1 47 35 35.6 35 45 38.1 45 40 37.5 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 54 44 48.9 46 59 68.1 63 52 53.5 53 61 76 64 47 42 44 50 43.1 50 36 35.6 36
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 46 31 30.2 36 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 46 56 68.1 59 51 53.5 51 64 76 64 44 42 49
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 42 32 32.9 36 46 46.1 47 30 30.2 36 47 52.6 53 44 48.9 47 59 68.1 60 49 53.5 53
16 Feb 2018 53 56.9 56 28 30.5 30 39 38.3 42 31 32.9 33 42 46.1 49 33 30.2 38 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 47
15 Feb 2018 55 57.3 55 49 48.7 49 49 56.9 54 23 30.5 28 36 38.3 40 32 32.9 34 44 46.1 48 32 30.2 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 48 39 43.3 41 58 57.3 56 46 48.7 48 55 56.9 54 26 30.5 27 35 38.3 39 29 32.9 34
13 Feb 2018 37 34.9 39 30 29 32 47 50.9 51 40 43.3 42 55 57.3 55 45 48.7 47 52 56.9 50 25 30.5 21
12 Feb 2018 40 40.9 46 22 26.1 26 34 34.9 40 28 29 33 46 50.9 50 43 43.3 42 56 57.3 57 44 48.7 45
11 Feb 2018 50 55.7 55 39 40.2 43 40 40.9 46 25 26.1 26 36 34.9 39 31 29 33 48 50.9 49 38 43.3 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 3 5 5 6 6 4 6 8 2 3 5 6 1 5 3 6
% Succ 23.1   38.5 38.5   46.2 50.0   33.3 50.0   66.7 18.2   27.3 45.5   54.5 10.0   50.0 30.0   60.0
Ave Error 4.0   3.2 2.5   2.0 3.7   3.8 2.5   1.9 5.1   4.2 2.6   2.6 5.4   4.6 3.7   3.3
Net Error -2.9   -0.1 -1.8   1.0 -3.0   0.4 -2.1   0.6 -3.7   -0.8 -0.6   0.5 -2.6   -1.2 -2.3   0.1
Std Dev 3.2   2.3 1.6   1.7 3.9   3.3 2.3   1.6 4.8   3.9 2.0   2.2 4.4   4.3 2.8   3.0

Afternoon Forecast

Updated: 24 Feb 2018 at 13:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
24 Feb 2018 53   57 41   41 44   47 38   42 53   54 34   37 52   54 36   41
23 Feb 2018 41 38.1 42 40 37.5 40 55   57 39   38 45   48 38   43 54   56 34   38
22 Feb 2018 45 43.1 44 32 35.6 36 41 38.1 44 40 37.5 40 51   57 41   41 51   48 41   43
21 Feb 2018 63 76 76 39 42 46 42 43.1 48 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 44 39 37.5 41 53   56 41   40
20 Feb 2018 64 68.1 68 50 53.5 55 64 76 65 42 42 44 46 43.1 47 35 35.6 36 45 38.1 43 40 37.5 39
19 Feb 2018 50 52.6 52 46 48.9 48 56 68.1 64 50 53.5 54 61 76 64 47 42 45 50 43.1 49 36 35.6 35
18 Feb 2018 43 46.1 48 31 30.2 37 48 52.6 53 43 48.9 46 56 68.1 62 51 53.5 52 64 76 65 44 42 54
17 Feb 2018 37 38.3 40 32 32.9 35 46 46.1 47 30 30.2 36 47 52.6 53 44 48.9 46 59 68.1 61 49 53.5 53
16 Feb 2018 57 56.9 59 28 30.5 28 39 38.3 42 31 32.9 33 42 46.1 49 33 30.2 37 48 52.6 54 43 48.9 48
15 Feb 2018 52 57.3 60 49 48.7 51 49 56.9 54 23 30.5 29 36 38.3 41 32 32.9 34 44 46.1 49 32 30.2 37
14 Feb 2018 47 50.9 53 39 43.3 43 58 57.3 56 46 48.7 49 55 56.9 54 26 30.5 27 35 38.3 39 29 32.9 34
13 Feb 2018 33 34.9 37 30 29 33 47 50.9 51 40 43.3 42 55 57.3 56 45 48.7 47 52 56.9 58 25 30.5 22
12 Feb 2018 39 40.9 42 23 26.1 25 35 34.9 39 31 29 33 46 50.9 49 43 43.3 42 56 57.3 60 44 48.7 41
11 Feb 2018 50 55.7 53 39 40.2 43 40 40.9 46 25 26.1 26 36 34.9 39 31 29 33 48 50.9 50 38 43.3 43
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 7 5 5 6 4 5 8 2 3 5 5 1 4 3 6
% Succ 38.5   53.8 38.5   38.5 50.0   33.3 41.7   66.7 18.2   27.3 45.5   45.5 10.0   40.0 30.0   60.0
Ave Error 3.7   1.7 2.3   2.4 3.9   3.7 2.8   1.9 5.1   4.0 2.6   2.7 5.4   3.9 3.7   4.0
Net Error -2.9   1.2 -1.6   1.7 -3.2   0.5 -2.0   0.9 -3.7   -0.4 -0.6   0.7 -2.6   0.1 -2.3   0.3
Std Dev 3.2   1.1 1.4   1.8 4.3   3.2 2.3   1.6 4.8   3.5 2.0   2.1 4.4   3.7 2.8   4.2

Evening Forecast

Updated: 24 Feb 2018 at 17:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
24 Feb 2018 41   40 44   46 38   42 50   55 35   36 51   54 36   40 53   54
23 Feb 2018 38 37.5 38 54 38.1 55 38   39 47   49 40   43 53   55 34   38 52   55
22 Feb 2018 33 35.6 36 43 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 51 38.1 57 41   37 51   47 41   41 51   56
21 Feb 2018 39 42 45 41 76 48 34 35.6 36 42 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 52 38.1 56 41   43 53   49
20 Feb 2018 48 53.5 54 65 68.1 65 41 42 43 43 76 47 32 35.6 37 42 43.1 43 40 37.5 40 54 38.1 56
19 Feb 2018 46 48.9 48 56 52.6 63 50 53.5 53 65 68.1 64 43 42 44 48 76 48 33 35.6 35 44 43.1 46
18 Feb 2018 31 30.2 36 49 46.1 53 44 48.9 46 59 52.6 62 54 53.5 53 63 68.1 65 46 42 48 49 76 51
17 Feb 2018 33 32.9 35 42 38.3 47 32 30.2 36 49 46.1 52 45 48.9 45 63 52.6 61 50 53.5 53 64 68.1 63
16 Feb 2018 28 30.5 28 37 56.9 42 31 32.9 34 46 38.3 48 33 30.2 36 49 46.1 55 45 48.9 48 59 52.6 61
15 Feb 2018 49 48.7 51 50 57.3 55 24 30.5 30 36 56.9 41 32 32.9 34 45 38.3 50 33 30.2 38 48 46.1 54
14 Feb 2018 41 43.3 42 57 50.9 57 51 48.7 49 52 57.3 53 23 30.5 28 36 56.9 40 31 32.9 36 44 38.3 52
13 Feb 2018 32 29 31 46 34.9 50 41 43.3 42 57 50.9 56 45 48.7 47 56 57.3 54 26 30.5 24 35 56.9 36
12 Feb 2018 23 26.1 25 35 40.9 39 31 29 32 47 34.9 50 40 43.3 41 56 50.9 58 44 48.7 47 52 57.3 55
11 Feb 2018 39 40.2 44 41 55.7 48 22 26.1 26 36 40.9 38 32 29 33 47 34.9 48 39 43.3 43 54 50.9 57
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 7 1 2 5 8 1 1 3 5 2 1 1 5 2 0
% Succ 38.5   53.8 7.7   15.4 41.7   66.7 8.3   8.3 27.3   45.5 18.2   9.1 10.0   50.0 20.0   0.0
Ave Error 2.1   2.0 9.9   9.4 2.9   1.6 9.7   10.0 3.0   2.5 9.8   10.8 3.5   3.0 9.2   11.0
Net Error -1.4   1.1 -3.3   0.5 -1.4   0.7 -1.7   0.7 -1.2   0.5 -0.5   1.4 -1.6   0.9 -2.4   0.4
Std Dev 1.6   1.5 9.5   7.9 1.9   1.6 9.5   8.6 2.4   1.9 9.1   9.1 2.3   2.9 9.3   9.2

Night Forecast

Updated: 23 Feb 2018 at 21:55
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
23 Feb 2018 40   37 54   56 38   39 47   49 40   43 53   56 34   38 52   55
22 Feb 2018 33 35.6 36 43 38.1 43 40   40 51   58 41   37 51   47 41   41 51   56
21 Feb 2018 41 42 46 42 43.1 49 33 35.6 37 42 38.1 43 40   40 52   56 41   43 53   49
20 Feb 2018 51 53.5 54 65 76 66 41 42 44 43 43.1 47 32 35.6 37 42 38.1 43 40   40 54   56
19 Feb 2018 46 48.9 49 56 68.1 62 50 53.5 53 65 76 65 43 42 44 48 43.1 48 33 35.6 35 44 38.1 46
18 Feb 2018 31 30.2 32 49 52.6 52 44 48.9 45 59 68.1 62 54 53.5 53 63 76 65 46 42 48 49 43.1 51
17 Feb 2018 33 32.9 32 42 46.1 46 32 30.2 36 49 52.6 53 45 48.9 45 63 68.1 61 50 53.5 53 64 76 63
16 Feb 2018 28 30.5 31 37 38.3 43 31 32.9 34 46 46.1 48 33 30.2 36 49 52.6 54 45 48.9 48 59 68.1 62
15 Feb 2018 52 48.7 52 50 56.9 56 24 30.5 30 36 38.3 41 32 32.9 34 45 46.1 50 33 30.2 38 48 52.6 54
14 Feb 2018 40 43.3 42 57 57.3 57 51 48.7 49 52 56.9 53 23 30.5 28 36 38.3 40 31 32.9 36 44 46.1 52
13 Feb 2018 32 29 29 46 50.9 49 41 43.3 42 57 57.3 56 45 48.7 47 56 56.9 53 26 30.5 24 35 38.3 37
12 Feb 2018 22 26.1 27 35 34.9 40 31 29 33 47 50.9 50 40 43.3 41 56 57.3 58 44 48.7 47 52 56.9 55
11 Feb 2018 38 40.2 45 41 40.9 49 22 26.1 26 36 34.9 38 32 29 32 47 50.9 48 39 43.3 43 54 57.3 57
10 Feb 2018 42 41.9 42 48 55.7 51 38 40.2 41 41 40.9 44 27 26.1 26 38 34.9 39 32 29 34 48 50.9 51
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 10 5 5 4 9 5 4 4 6 3 3 1 5 0 5
% Succ 30.8   76.9 38.5   38.5 33.3   75.0 41.7   33.3 36.4   54.5 27.3   27.3 10.0   50.0     50.0
Ave Error 2.2   1.4 4.5   4.1 2.9   1.8 3.4   3.6 2.8   2.2 3.9   4.2 3.5   3.2 5.4   4.6
Net Error -1.1   1.1 -3.7   0.3 -1.9   0.8 -2.5   -0.3 -1.3   0.2 -1.8   -0.3 -1.6   1.1 -3.0   0.1
Std Dev 1.2   1.5 4.0   3.2 1.9   1.8 3.5   3.1 2.4   1.8 3.7   3.3 2.3   3.0 4.3   4.4
Weather Terms: Flash Flood Warning - Flash flooding is occurring, imminent or highly likely. A flash flood is a flood that occurs within 6 hours of excessive rainfall and that poses a threat to life and/or property. Ice jams and dam failures can also cause flash floods. These warnings are issued on a county by county basis by the local Weather Forecast Office in Upton and are generally in effect for up to 6 hours.